Summary
By now, politicians, commentators and the informed public are well aware of the possibility of "rogue" opinion polls. There is always a statistical chance - fortunately a fairly small one - that even a poll conducted to the highest standards will produce wrong results: be a "rogue". So, when looking at trends in opinion, it is better to analyse a number of polls together. A single poll may be deficient in a variety of ways, but it is unlikely that all polls are getting things badly wrong.
The accompanying graph is based on three Scottish polls at the end of March/beginning of April and three from late April. It shows the averages for voting intentions in the constituency contests for the Scottish Parliament - and the picture is clear. Labour and the SNP have been miles ahead, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats scrapping for a very poor third place.See the full content of this document
Extract
Opinion Is That the Polls Will Not Turn Rogue
More interesting, perhaps, is the gap that has opened up between the SNP and Labour. We don't have to look very far to explain the SNP's l...
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